# Is a new dark age at hand? **URL:** \ **Category:** Lounge\ **Created:** [November 5, 2009, 1:14am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831 "2009-11-05T01:14:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2009, 1:14am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/1 "2009-11-05T01:14:44Z")
[American Thinker: Is A New Dark Age At Hand?](http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/01/is_a_new_dark_age_at_hand_1.html) Tacitus has written previously of the negative consequences of the loss of body consciousness and of the use of technology. I thought this piece was provocative. ---
**Author:** ![Holmes](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/holmes/32/2128_2.png) [@Holmes](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Holmes)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2009, 1:58am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/2 "2009-11-05T01:58:28Z")
Wow. Thought-provoking piece. I can’t say that I disagree with much (if any) of what Murray has said. We’ve become a very hollow, gullible, passive, superficial society. Thanks for the post. ---
**Author:** ![MuskCloud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f07891/32.png) [@MuskCloud](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/MuskCloud)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2009, 2:21am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/3 "2009-11-05T02:21:03Z")
This brings to mind an incident that convinces me the Dark Ages are close, if not already here. A few years ago, I ran into a young woman, early 20s, who literally doesn’t know how to talk. I kid you not. When we asked her to place an order for building materials we needed on site, she was mute. Why? The server was down and she couldn’t do anything. We actually needed to prompt her into talking to the guy sat opposite her so he could place an order over the phone. She looked at him as if she didn’t know how to… you know… open your mouth and talk? It’s weird, but that was the impression I got. The blank look of confusion on her face, not a sound from her lips. She’s a woman, for God’s sake! A woman doesn’t know how to talk? We had to do it ourselves and then we heard a beep-beep. Her phone. She had a text message. Her face becomes alive and animated, her thumbs blurring over the keypad at a speed faster than the eye can follow. The message sent, she then lapses back into her comatose state. All the time, not a sound from her. My colleague, a self-confessed Luddite who despises modern technology, was livid, convinced that he witnessed the beginning of the end of civilisation. I was a bit shaken at the first real evidence I’ve seen of a major social malaise taking hold and I had to admit he had a point. Thank God for [pheromones](https://pheromonelabs.com/shop/), is all I can say. A technology that encourages you to leave your cyborg existence behind, go out there and interact with your fellow man? Bring it on. Musk ---
**Author:** ![Snoopyace](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/snoopyace/32/1727_2.png) [@Snoopyace](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Snoopyace)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2009, 3:54am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/4 "2009-11-05T03:54:52Z")
> [@MuskCloud](#): > > This brings to mind an incident that convinces me the Dark Ages are close, if not already here. > > A few years ago, I ran into a young woman, early 20s, who literally doesn’t know how to talk. I kid you not. > > When we asked her to place an order for building materials we needed on site, she was mute. Why? The server was down and she couldn’t do anything. We actually needed to prompt her into talking to the guy sat opposite her so he could place an order over the phone. > > She looked at him as if she didn’t know how to… you know… open your mouth and talk? It’s weird, but that was the impression I got. The blank look of confusion on her face, not a sound from her lips. > > She’s a woman, for God’s sake! A woman doesn’t know how to talk? > > We had to do it ourselves and then we heard a beep-beep. Her phone. She had a text message. Her face becomes alive and animated, her thumbs blurring over the keypad at a speed faster than the eye can follow. The message sent, she then lapses back into her comatose state. > > All the time, not a sound from her. My colleague, a self-confessed Luddite who despises modern technology, was livid, convinced that he witnessed the beginning of the end of civilisation. I was a bit shaken at the first real evidence I’ve seen of a major social malaise taking hold and I had to admit he had a point. > > Thank God for pheromones, is all I can say. A technology that encourages you to leave your cyborg existence behind, go out there and interact with your fellow man? Bring it on. > > Musk Well said! I’ve experienced the same thing with people from about 30 and younger (and I’m not exactly old) who have never been taught how to ‘unplug’ and communicate from person to person. Frightening. ---
**Author:** ![Butterfly](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/butterfly/32/1942_2.png) [@Butterfly](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Butterfly)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2009, 3:11pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/5 "2009-11-05T15:11:44Z")
Well, I get the impression that this article is playing on feelings more than looking at the facts. It is being a voice for the fears living in middle aged underbellies. Every bit of technology has positive and negative effects. The grammophone robbed Uncle Eddy of an audience for his mediocre guitarplay, but gave us the opportunity to listen to Jimmi Hendrix after his death. Youtube gives Uncle Eddy a new audience, perhaps one or two people on the other end of the globe that love to hear someone play their favorite songs, even if done unprofessionally. On one hand, his nephews were a physically closer audience, related by blood, on the other hand, they were hardly hiding their boredom. What is more meaningful? Technology isn’t evil, it is a tool. What you do with it is up to you. Plenty of people under 30 read and read a lot. Some of them write. Some people are glued to the television or numbing their minds with idle chatter, others are learning something from a documentary or discussing something profound over email. It is all up to the individual and the choices he makes. It is not like dumb people are going to read Plato or go to the opera if you take away their TV-set, mobile phone and computer. They are more likely to chat with a dumb friend, pick a fight at a seedy bar, have unprotected sex, get conned playing cards or just goof about. About darkness and the Dark Ages: Wars are cruel and violent and terrible and destructive, but they are also part of the natural cycles of life and fertile breeding grounds for new technologies and ideas. Trying to stay alive when the odds are bad makes people very inventive , trying to find hope in the grittiest, darkest, most desperate times makes people courageous. In the greatest darkness, new light is born. Destruction gives us the opportunity to build something new, something better but it also oblitterates things of beauty. Violence marks and guards boundaries, physically and ethically, it breeds more violence and can also end violence. The coldest darkest winter is the beginning of a new year and also ends life for many animals and plants, some humans too. Is is good, bad, both or neither? A lot of the ignorance and intolerance we associate with the middle ages is a natural companion to the spread of monotheism. It required destruction of the old structures, but Judaism, Islam and Christianity, even today, give structure to the lives of half the people on this planet. There was probably some reason why they were seen as desirable at the time. An education promoting free thought is not going to coexist with blind faith, and monotheism happens to demand just that. Migrating peoples were able to invade Roman territory because, at least in the area of warfare, they were able to do things the Romans could not. Barbarians or not, they evidently had their strengths, even if they did not have the order and the education the Romans had. Rome could not have fallen if it did not have weaknesses. Invaders were often people whose lands had been invaded before. There were no refugee camps back then, they needed to conquer to survive. Constant wars and brigands made the countryside unsafe for travel, so goods and ideas could no longer be exchanged. A series of plagues furthered deurbanisation so that more people were cut off from centers of learning. It was an unfortunate that the rise of monotheism and an age of war coincided, so that there was a cut-off from both the past and the wider world. Islam by the way, kept better trade connections and exchange of knowledge but pagan works were destroyed with more fervor. It was not that people became stupid, shallow or anything like that. Simply lacking access to a free stream of information and being unable to compare views with others beyond the town walls causes people to keep believing in silly things. If anything, the internet helps prevent something like this from happening again. You can burn libraries, but once something is on the internet, you’ll never get it off. ---
**Author:** ![jankren](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jankren](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/jankren)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2009, 11:19pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/6 "2009-11-06T23:19:36Z")
Pffft , Stupid article. ---
**Author:** ![Holmes](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/holmes/32/2128_2.png) [@Holmes](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Holmes)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2009, 11:26pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/7 "2009-11-06T23:26:23Z")
Would like love to hear what you, Quirk, think about it all… ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 12:02pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/8 "2009-11-10T12:02:36Z")
> [@](#): > > Thank God for pheromones, is all I can say. A technology that encourages you to leave your cyborg existence behind, go out there and interact with your fellow man? Bring it on. Fantastic (and yet all too believable) story Musk, and good point about value of pheromones as a social and emotional learning tool. Butterfly - fair point, reminiscent of Tyler Cowen (of marginalrevolution fame). I do think that society tends to ebb and flow between periods of strong social cohesion (Ibn Khaldun called this asabiyyah) and periods of fragmentation/disintegration. The second stage performs a necessary function in destroying institutions and patterns that are no longer adaptive and prepares the way for a new period of growth. But at the same time it might not be so pleasant to live through. Here is what [Marc Faber](http://gloomboomdoom.com) wrote on this topic - > [@](#): > > As Michael Steinhardt succinctly says, “It is very difficult to tell what the future will be.” > > Personally, I think the future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults, and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society. But what I don’t know is whether this final collapse, which is inevitable, will occur tomorrow, or in five or ten years, and whether it will occur with the Dow at 100,000 and gold at US$50,000 per ounce or even confiscated, or with the Dow at 3000 and gold at US$1,000. > > “How are you so sure about this final collapse?” the reader may ask. Of all the questions I have about the future, this is the easiest one to answer. Every successful society or centre of prosperity (city) began from a base of thrift, frugality, hard work (also in warfare), innovation, and as a result of some kind of pressure, either from nature (cold winters, floods, droughts, or some other inhospitable environment) or from social or political adversaries (powerful enemies, competition, oppressive regimes). In short, successful societies and centres of prosperity (cities, regions) grow out of some kind of “challenge”. > > Once a society becomes successful it becomes arrogant, righteous, overconfident, corrupt, and decadent. It then overspends (usually on costly wars to protect its interests); wealth inequity and social tensions increase; and society enters a secular decline, which leads to state bankruptcies > (frequently initially postponed by monetary depreciation — read “inflation”), decay, and a loss of its political and economic power relative > to other nations. > > According to Scottish jurist and historian Sir Alex Fraser Tyler (1742–1813), the average life span of the world’s greatest civilisations has been 200 > years. These nations progressed through the following sequence: from > bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependence; and from dependency back into bondage! > > Very few societies aged gracefully by recognising early that eternal > prosperity was unattainable. Most societies decayed because the cost of > maintaining their high level of prosperity increased (overspending). > In my opinion, it is most unlikely that Western societies — and > especially the US — will be an exception to this typical “society > cycle”. In fact, I guess that the US is somewhere between the phase where > it moves “from complacency to apathy” and “from apathy to > dependence”. ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 12:08pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/9 "2009-11-10T12:08:41Z")
> [@](#): > > If anything, the internet helps prevent something like this from happening again. You can burn libraries, but once something is on the internet, you’ll never get it off. If only we could be sure that were true. The net is robust, but perhaps not as robust as one imagines. I do not think we are entering in to a dark age globally for a while. But eventually, one will come along. And servers require much more caring for than books. The power consumption alone is staggering. ---
**Author:** ![Butterfly](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/butterfly/32/1942_2.png) [@Butterfly](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Butterfly)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2009, 7:17pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/10 "2009-11-10T19:17:53Z")
While I think some unpleasant changes can happen in the future, comparison with the fall of Rome is a denial of the gravity of Rome’s problems in the three centuries before the actual fall. It was not just any one problem that led to the dark ages, but rather 300 years of constant financial crises, constant political crises and anarchy, several epidemics that killed a substantial part of the population, constant attacks on the borders of Rome, plus a host of other problems. If I look back at the past 100 years, that is not what I see in the world, in Europe or even the US. I do think we can learn a lesson from how the Romans tried to solve their problems and what the consequenses of those decisions were. We can apply that thought to our own, less intense problems. Rome fell gradually. Most of what we consider to be typical of the dark ages was already a reality for the Roman citizen before the Barbarians took over. A few examples: When the empire stopped growing, the supply fresh slaves ended and jobs were left undone. The chosen solution was not to mechanize and get work done with less hands but to motivate the poor citizens to pick up the pail. This chipped away at the basic citizen rights, caused large scale uprising and eventually caused the lower classes to be apathic to invasion. Had the choice been made to build machinery, serfdom may not have happened, there had been less civil war and the peasants that formed the lionshare of the army had more motivation to protect the land. As emperors became of lower quality and were assasinated shortly after seizing the throne, yet remained in absolute power, decisions where made with the short term in mind, the government grew less and less reliable and taxes grew less reasonable. Those who could afford it moved into the country on something like a self sufficient plantation with a private army, stopped paying taxes or participating in the national economy. They essentially created their own little duchies inside the empire. They would not have been able to do this without the poor fleeing the cities with nothing to trade but their labour. Inside those little self sufficient economies, trading goods was th natural thing to do. Hyperinflation did cause people in the cities to also start bartering, but that alone would not have caused a feudal economy. Ancient economies also did not bounce back as quickly as modern ones can. When the dollar collapses it could be a slow drop followed by a stabilisation, which means that Americans will have less access to cheap foreign goods and either own less or produce more or it could be something like Argentina’s situation. The latter scenario is pretty unpleasant, but hardly the dark ages. ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2009, 12:53am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/11 "2009-11-12T00:53:35Z")
[Taki’s Magazine, edited by Taki Theodoracopulos](http://www.takimag.com/blogs/article/consumer_kids_credit_card_debt_as_a_way_of_life/) > [@](#): > > So there was Mom, teaching her child that at 10 years old she too can have luxury items at premium prices, because life is all about spending money (Mom and Dad’s money) and accumulation. Perhaps Mom should be teaching her young daughter about preserving her body and health for the long term, instead of blasting through the malls putting her random desires on charge cards? The child’s obesity, the adult luxury items on a credit card, the t-shirt declaring that accumulation brings pleasure—these are all signs of a depraved and appalling culture that is destroying a large segment of the current generation. Parents are zealously passing on their financial irresponsibility and spiritless lives to their children. That woman’s brainless imprudence will become that poor child’s future. > Years of credit bubble-ignited consumer excesses in America have produced one aftermath that is markedly tragic—the professional child consumer. Children learn, from a very early age, that life is enabled by money because it is money that buys them all the stuff they want to own. Kids have become professional consumers. They covet so they buy, courtesy of parents who are financial slaves to their children’s infantile impulses. ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2009, 1:36am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/12 "2009-11-12T01:36:42Z")
> [@Butterfly](#): > > While I think some unpleasant changes can happen in the future, comparison with the fall of Rome is a denial of the gravity of Rome’s problems in the three centuries before the actual fall. Ah, yes. These things do take a long time to play out. But to recognize that is not to say that the problems didn’t arise from decisions and shifts in the mood of society and culture that started to occur fairly early in the difficult period, well in advance of the fall itself, and yet proceeded down an inexorable path that was hard to leave once the journey began Catabolic phases are not a straight line collapse into the bottom of the ocean - we see decline, crisis and then some kind of stabilization and recovery that might last some time before the next episode of decline begins. > [@](#): > > It was not just any one problem that led to the dark ages, but rather 300 years of constant financial crises, constant political crises and anarchy, several epidemics that killed a substantial part of the population, constant attacks on the borders of Rome, plus a host of other problems. Yes… but were these originating causes or somewhat symptoms of a decline in the organisation and cohesion of the empire? There were pressures from other peoples from the early days yet Rome did not succumb to them till it was weakened. Clearly, amongst other things, periods of cooling in the climate have contributed throughout history to epidemics, economic crises and barbarian invasions (since the cooler it is the lower crop yields tend to be). Certainly in the next thirty years one can expect a phase of cooling related to cycles in ocean temperature (such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). After that possibly it depends on solar activity - let us hope we are not in a new Dalton minimum, or worse. > [@](#): > > If I look back at the past 100 years, that is not what I see in the world, in Europe or even the US. Ah, but I am not asking whether extrapolating our recent experience points to a more difficult period ahead. I wonder rather whether one can see similarities between prevailing conditions and those that existed very early on in the decline of great civilisations. I do believe the answer is quite clearly that we do. It is easy to confuse technological progress with social progress, but I believe that the former can coexist in the short term with declining social conditions. An example might be our experience since 1996 with the tech and then credit bubbles, where there was without a doubt a transformational shift related to technology and globalisation that even so did not stop growing disorganisation in the structure of the economy. > [@](#): > > I do think we can learn a lesson from how the Romans tried to solve their problems and what the consequenses of those decisions were. We can apply that thought to our own, less intense problems. I do hope so. I wonder however to what extent the lesson from their experience (and that of other civilisations, many of which have experienced several episodes of darkness and light) is that decline at some point is inevitable, and that one should be careful not to get carried away with a Whiggish view of human history as linear progress. Maybe human history is a spiral - ebb and flow is inevitable, even if we do progress over millenia. Possibly recognizing the inevitability of decline once it sets in will lead us to make wiser decisions than would trying at all costs to preserve the status quo. I do think we are still in a period when we will be able to find solutions to our problems, but it would be better to face up to them sooner. > [@](#): > > Hyperinflation did cause people in the cities to also start bartering, but that alone would not have caused a feudal economy. Possibly we are not many decades away from hyperinflation. As you say, one motivation for escaping the cities was the excessive tax burden (levied in kind) and need for protection once the state no longer existed in that role. Now we are very far away from this situation presently, but is it not a question of degree? > [@](#): > > Ancient economies also did not bounce back as quickly as modern ones can. Is this based on some permanent change in human nature? Or more contingent on particular institutions and circumstances? Many emerging market economies have been less than resilient when very badly governed. > [@](#): > > When the dollar collapses it could be a slow drop followed by a stabilisation, which means that Americans will have less access to cheap foreign goods and either own less or produce more or it could be something like Argentina’s situation. The latter scenario is pretty unpleasant, but hardly the dark ages. Possibly the route to an Argentina situation would be via an incredible dollar rally first, and it would be the policy response to the deflation that sets us up for genuine hyperinflation. You’re right that it’s not exactly the dark ages. As, I said I don’t expect anything like that soon (not really, in my lifetime). But it would be one more step along a road that historically (after maybe a century or two) has led in that direction. The real problems are ones of spirit and culture. Once a society has lost belief in the values, institutions and myths that led to success, I think it is very difficult for it to reorient itself in the right direction without destruction and then rebuilding. Here are some perspectives on this that I enjoyed reading [ContraHour: Martin Armstrong: Is It Time To Turn Out The Lights?](http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/03/martin-armstrong-is-it-time-to-turn-out-the-lights.html) [A theory of history](http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/HistorySociety.htm) [World of Contradictions](http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/WorldContradictions.htm) [http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/07/Kotlikoff.pdf](http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/07/Kotlikoff.pdf) > [@Federal Reserve](#): > > Is the United States bankrupt? Many would scoff at this notion. Others would argue that financial implosion is just around the corner. This paper explores these views from both partial and general equilibrium perspectives. It concludes that countries can go broke, that the United States is going broke, that remaining open to foreign investment can help stave off bankruptcy, but that radical reform of U.S. fiscal institutions is essential to secure the nation’s economic future. ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2009, 2:01pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/13 "2009-11-12T14:01:05Z")
from founder of Paypal [Notes from Peter Thiel’s Singularity Summit Talk (2009) | Leveraging Ideas](http://www.leveragingideas.com/2009/10/04/notes-peter-thiel-singularity-summit-talk/) > [@](#): > > Peter suggests that the recent credit/financial crisis actually has to do with singularity. Our society is on shaky ground: millions of people have money invested in pension funds (and the like) which they expect to produce returns of ~8% per annum, even despite various period of volatility. What people forget is that the past returns we’ve come to expect have been generated during periods of compounding innovation; cutting-edge tech has bolstered all other lines of business that rely on technological gains to increase productivity, etc. Innovation is a necessary component of a healthy, upward market. Innovation has stalled. > > Peter recently talked to an LP (endowment) who was thinking of re-allocating its portfolio to hold less than 5% in venture capital as its recent returns had not matched expectations. Peter told the LP that they’re thinking is flawed: if their 5% allocated to vc eventually does not return a mega profit, the remaining 95% allocation is going to be worthless anyway. ”Investing in technology as a VC is like Pascal’s bet: if that isn’t going to work, nothing will.” > > Peter then asks: has recent technological progress really been slower than it should be? He cites as support the fact that a) wages have not increased in terms of real dollars since 1973 b) that California (the most innovate place in the world) can barely pay its bills and c) that VC’s haven’t seen good returns in 11 years. > > The credit crisis was really a technology crisis. Credit really is ‘claims on the future’ and credit only works with a background of growth. Peter then suggests that the credit crisis was really an offshoot of the dotcom crash. The dotcom crash in his opinion, occurred because the ‘innovation story’ was not happening as quickly as people expected. People panicked and bailed. When stocks (i.e. those necessary 8% returns) tanked, housing and leverage swooped in to make-up the difference. > > Peter states clearly: “the boom-bust cycle is over”. There will now either be a long period of malaise, or we’ll see a great boom (he’s obviously betting on the former). > > Peter slams the NASDAQ explaining that most listed companies are actually not technology companies, rather, they are zero-sum bets against technology (ex: investing in Google is feeding a monopoly on search, Microsoft doing well means linux suffers, etc). NASDAQ companies are more like banks than they are true innovators (Sun may be an exception). > > The Madoff scandal occurred because people assumed that even despite a drought of innovation, an 8% annual return with no risk was still “safe.” This is crazy. People need to dramatically adjust their return expectations; only great risk will produce great returns. ---
**Author:** ![Butterfly](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/butterfly/32/1942_2.png) [@Butterfly](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Butterfly)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2009, 10:12pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/14 "2009-11-12T22:12:22Z")
Pheroquirk, I understand you do not believe in a coming Dark Age but you do see an impending decline of some magnitude. Would you care to elaborate on what you expect the situation to be like in 30 years and in a century? > [@PheroQuirk](#): > > I do hope so. I wonder however to what extent the lesson from their experience (and that of other civilisations, many of which have experienced several episodes of darkness and light) is that decline at some point is inevitable, and that one should be careful not to get carried away with a Whiggish view of human history as linear progress. Maybe human history is a spiral - ebb and flow is inevitable, even if we do progress over millenia. Possibly recognizing the inevitability of decline once it sets in will lead us to make wiser decisions than would trying at all costs to preserve the status quo. I do think we are still in a period when we will be able to find solutions to our problems, but it would be better to face up to them sooner. That is an interesting point to consider. I think growth that comes from technological advance mainly causes linear or exponential progress over the long term. Every invention of importance creates a jump, but over the course of a century it all smooths out. For example: It may take me a week to sew a dress by hand, but only a day with a sewing machine. So if me and Lucia from the 2nd century spend 5 hours a week on sewing for ourselves, I will have a fuller closet. I think the growth that comes from power works more in terms of ebb and flow. If Lucia manages to force a girl to spend 35 hours a week sewing for her, her closet will be as full as mine. Her slave increases her production as much as my machine. I can also use power to gain wealth in a more indirect way. I can buy a dress that takes me 10 hours to make for money that takes me two hours to earn. Someone else is oppressing a girl in a far away place, much like Lucia had her slave. Both oppressed girls may at some point gain power or protection. You can argue that we have the same to lose or that I will be left with more than Lucia. Power changes can be seen as big sine waves on top of the upward curve. Where do you think we are at compared to the Roman empire? What sort of solutions do you envision? > [@PheroQuirk](#): > > Here are some perspectives on this that I enjoyed reading > > [ContraHour: Martin Armstrong: Is It Time To Turn Out The Lights?](http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/03/martin-armstrong-is-it-time-to-turn-out-the-lights.html) > [A theory of history](http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/HistorySociety.htm) > [World of Contradictions](http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/WorldContradictions.htm) > [http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/07/Kotlikoff.pdf](http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/07/Kotlikoff.pdf) I did some reading there and while I don’t normally read much about economy, I found them quite fascinating because of the connection to history. ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2009, 3:27pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/15 "2009-11-13T15:27:28Z")
[Don’t Fool Yourself: America Is “Now a Communist Nation” | Pinnacle Digest](http://www.pinnacledigest.com/blog/edminnema/dont-fool-yourself:-america-now-communist-nation) > [@](#): > > At last year’s Alliance Conference, I urged folks to buy stocks - vehemently… It was the most bullish I’ve been in my entire life. But now I feel the opposite way. When the facts change, I change my mind. I never thought we’d see the government running $2 trillion deficits, taking over health care, owning all the banks… > > The stock market seems to believe the government can solve all of our problems with paper money and bureaucratic mandates. My bet is, it doesn’t work… at least, not for long. And given the choice between earning less than 1% in the bank and buying gold at $1,100 per ounce, I’m buying gold. > > Watching the government rack up debts that will be impossible to repay while narrowing the tax base (at least 50% of Americans pay zero federal income tax) at the same time is very scary. Not only has the government gone mad with spending and corruption, but it also expects about 10% of the population to pay for essentially all the costs. The math simply doesn’t add up: 10% of the population can’t (and won’t) pay for all of the costs of a socialist federal government. > > This has nothing to do with traditional party politics. Both parties have grown the size and responsibilities of government. Both parties have added to the national debt. And both parties support the narrowing of the tax base - because that’s what makes good political sense in an unlimited democracy… Promise the voters they can live at the expense of their neighbors and future generations. > > Unfortunately, we know from history this kind of political system can’t last for long - for lots of reasons. One important reason: The rich will leave. Or they will stop working. They will hide their incomes or only invest in tax-protected vehicles. And we know the political response will be tougher laws on emigration, taxation, more money printing, and - eventually - capital controls that make it impossible to protect yourself from a massive currency devaluation. > > That’s the script. We’ve watched the same things happen dozens of times around the world following World War II and the introduction of a global paper currency standard, which allowed governments to run huge deficits and finance their activities through inflation and devaluation. We just never thought we’d see it happen here. > > Today, the idea of leaving America in search of freedom and financial security seems like absolute madness. But it won’t for long. And by the time most people wake up to the very real threats to their standard of living, it will be too late. > > The trends I’m talking about are cultural and fiscal, not ideological. Read the original Communist Manifesto. It’s nearly identical to today’s government policies. Any politician who tries to oppose the landslide of modern entitlements is immediately labeled a kook and is unelectable. > Whether you think we ought to have free health care and drugs for retirees, more military spending than the rest of the world combined, a bankrupt retirement scheme based on government debt, government guarantees for the banks, etc. doesn’t matter to me. I’m not interested in pie-in-the-sky ideas about how the world should work. I write about how the world does work. > > And I can tell you this with 100% accuracy: You cannot support the world’s reserve currency when you are the world’s largest debtor, when you plan to finance annual deficits exceeding $2 trillion with progressive income taxes and money printing. Our economy is a charade. And when it falls apart, the consequences will be devastating. ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2009, 11:20pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/16 "2009-11-23T23:20:54Z")
[The Oil Drum: Europe | “Peak Civilization”: The Fall of the Roman Empire](http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5528) ---
**Author:** ![Reaper\_vai](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/reaper_vai/32/855_2.png) [@Reaper\_vai](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Reaper_vai)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2009, 5:22pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/17 "2009-11-24T17:22:04Z")
[The Truth Seeker - The House of Rothschild](http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=840) ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2009, 11:21pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/18 "2009-11-24T23:21:55Z")
interesting link reaper, but not so sure of the direct connection with prospects for long term decline of western civilization… incidentally, I do think political changes can appear as if the result of some vast conspiracy, but I don’t think in actuality conspiracies are very influential. possibly it is rather that individual politicians acting in accordance with the spirit of the age and with what they believe to be their best interests are led to favour certain emergent tendencies in policy. ---
**Author:** ![Reaper\_vai](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/reaper_vai/32/855_2.png) [@Reaper\_vai](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Reaper_vai)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2009, 1:21am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/is-a-new-dark-age-at-hand/33831/19 "2009-11-25T01:21:36Z")
> [@PheroQuirk](#): > > interesting link reaper, but not so sure of the direct connection with prospects for long term decline of western civilization… > > incidentally, I do think political changes can appear as if the result of some vast conspiracy, but I don’t think in actuality conspiracies are very influential. possibly it is rather that individual politicians acting in accordance with the spirit of the age and with what they believe to be their best interests are led to favour certain emergent tendencies in policy. Well, the bankers and world leaders want us to be subservient. Think about the last time you had a power cut. You were probably at a loss with nothing productive to do. Likewise, ever went to the supermarket and got really pissed off because they didn’t have something you were looking for? We are all too used to our life of comfort and convenience. Just on time delivery means that we only ever have 3days worth if food and fuel at any one time. Last of all, in Britain we have what we call an underclass that relies entirely on welfare but lives just as good as the middle classes. Free cars, no rent, subsidised utilities. Most of them are obese. You see them struggling to push their trolleys in the supermarket. What would happen to these people if the system failed for one week? I once took one woman’s trolley full of groceries while she was rummaging around in her purse. She couldn’t chase me, she just stood there crying and screaming. I left the trolley at the other side of the car park. A member of staff had to retrieve it for her. I was disgusted.