# Oil Prices: The Next Economic Bubble Waiting to Burst? **URL:** \ **Category:** Lounge\ **Created:** [May 23, 2008, 4:02am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001 "2008-05-23T04:02:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Daedelus76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Daedelus76](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Daedelus76)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2008, 4:30am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/41 "2008-07-03T04:30:15Z")
> [@K24](#): > > terrible. > it would cost me about 100 bucks per week for petrol, so i decided to use public transport, it sucks but hey better than walking… Is your currency being devalued… what’s the deal over there? Over here on the news we keep hearing about the slumping US dollar and speculation being the root of high oil prices. That’s the “expert” opinion. Of course guys on the street will give all sorts of other explanations, from blaming “greedy Arabs”, to environmentalists preventing driling, to oil companies subverting green technology or “free fuel”, etc. People are really starting to a bit emotional about the subject. Curiously enough, I rarely see the questions of how people live/work being brought up into the subject, everybody wants to turn the lens onto somebody else other than themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Warren](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/97f17d/32.png) [@Warren](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Warren)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2008, 4:38am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/42 "2008-07-05T04:38:39Z")
> [@Daedelus76](#): > > Is your currency being devalued… what’s the deal over there? Over here on the news we keep hearing about the slumping US dollar and speculation being the root of high oil prices. In the past five years the value of the Australian dollar has gone from about 65 US cents to approx 95 US cents (last available quote $0.9635). That is roughly a 45% increase in five years. > [@K24](#): > > according to my limited macro economics background, I’d say yes,the bubble will burst and its going to be a mighty big one. The next bubble to burst is likely to be the bond market. You are getting less than 4% interest on a 10 year treasury bond. Money supply (M3) is estimated to be increasing at about 17%. You are getting negative real interest by any reasonable calculation of inflation. You could have bought Australian Dollars five years ago and hid them under your mattress at zero interest and have more purchasing power than the guy who invested the same amount in U.S government bonds. People are buying bonds because they perceive them as a safe haven in an uncertain environment. As they finally grasp that this is an inflationary envoronment, that will change. In real terms (i.e. inflation adjusted), you are virtually guaranteed to lose money in bonds. The metaphore of bubble is used to describe something that keeps getting bigger (inflating) and then collapses in on itself (bursts). Looking at a chart of oil prices you see a rapid rise, not so different from the NASDAQ bubble that burst in 2000 or the housing bubble which is still deflating. Eventually if oil prices keep rising they may become a bubble. Unfortunately, at the present time, there is no evidence of unrealistically high prices in oil. Just because you want lower prices doesn’t make it a bubble, even if prices have risen dramatically. Demand is increasing and supply is limited. Inventorys are at multi-decade lows. Here is an interesting note from Bill Murphey’s website, dated yesterday (July 3): “It came to my attention late yesterday that the Merc raised the spec margin requirement. I happen to be watching the oil close yesterday when it made a stunning $2 per barrel rally in about a minute right on that close. I thought they were misprints, it was unusually dramatic. Turns out, according to what was said on the tube, the spec SHORTS waited until the last minute to cover. In other words raising the margin requirement buried the shorts, not the longs.” I had noted previously that the speculators were more likely keeping oil prices unrealistically _low_ than high. Here is an example of TPTB chasing speculators out of the market and prices rising!! Surprise! Surprise! Eventually TPTB will find a way to force prices lower, temporarily, but only temporarily. Another interesting note from the same source: "Retired CEO of Shell Explains Today’s Energy Market 7-2-08 Shell Oil’s retired CEO who is working vigorously to educate Congress about the oil business explained this morning on CNBC where demand was originating from regarding price pressures. This explanation told of one barrel of oil being divided into three parts; a top, center and bottom thirds. The top is gasoline. The center is jet fuel, diesel and heating oil. The bottom is marine or bunker fuel and heavy oil used in some power plants and for industrial heating. Highest demand is coming from the center third. While US airlines are cutting back, Asian, Middle Eastern, Latin American and European airlines are not. Diesel for trucks, locomotives and other transportation demand is growing. The North American transportation and distribution system is designed for massive numbers of over-the-road trucks. Trains are limited by rolling stock availability and numbers of miles of track. These things are fixed and not easily expanded. Heating oil in the Northeastern US is the fuel of choice as rocky ground makes underground natural gas lines prohibitively expensive. These are fixed costs and situations and demand is rising. Consequently, the center third of the barrel is pushing hardest on the demand side and there are serious problems producing enough for this sector. In our view those who expect a longer term trend of falling energy prices are into wishful thinking and useless hopefulness." > [@Mtnjim](#): > > Maybe he knows the power of greed and stupidity. The only purpose of markets (business) is to maximize profits, no matter who gets f#@ked. Mtnjim, you sound bitter. Maybe you have good reason to be, but I think your blame is misplaced. The only purpose of markets is for a buyer and seller to exchange goods at an agreed upon price. That is not just a different opinion than you have, Mtnjim, that is the _definition_ of market. The seller sells what he wants to sell at a price he is willing to sell it for. The buyer buys what he wants to buy at the price he has agreed to pay. It is WIN-WIN. Peter Drucker, who is known as the “Father of Modern Management,” wrote at great length emphasizing just the opposite of “maximize profits, no matter who gets f#@ked”. I got my Masters degree in Management and I was never taught such an asanine thing. It makes no sense. You f#@k your customers and they are going to buy someplace else. You f#@k your suppliers and they will sell to someone else. You f#@k your shareholders and the directors will get voted out and the managers replaced. You f#@k the comunity where you operate and you are really screwed. There’s a Wall Street saying that bulls can make money, bears can make money, but pigs and chickens get slaughtered. Yes, there are stupid and greedy business men, just as in any other fields of endevour. Thing is you get greedy and overreach in business and you go broke. In politics you just win the stupid vote and get re-elected. > [@Daedelus76](#): > > If a government rules with the consent of the governed, then it’s not slavery. In the end, in a democracy, people get the government they vote for. Or perhaps the 49% are enslaved by the 51%. I believe it was Benjamin Franklin who said that democracy is two wolves and a lamb deciding what to have for lunch. Thank God we still have a Bill of Rights. In your original example, Daedelus, people were enslaved by their automobiles… > [@Daedelus76](#): > > I use ethics to determine what I value, not emotions. Ethics derives from the fact that every action a human being takes has consequences, and all humans have value or interests in themselves. I’m not against ethics, but I don’t think ethics is going to help you choose between chocolate ice cream and cherry pie. Ethics might help you decide how to feed the hungry, but it is the ability to feel hunger that makes you know that food has value. Without feeling, emotion, instinct nothing has value. We are ultimately motivated by emotion. Actions based on those motivations should be mediated by thought including ethical consderations, but if you deny your emotions you deny your humanity. You won’t get rid of your emotions or your humanity; you’ll just lose conscious control of them and the ability to know what has value. > [@Daedelus76](#): > > A person doesn’t cease having value or interests simply because they don’t experience the same emotions I do. But apparently they will cease to have value if they experience emotions unapproved by your “very dry, boring committees”. > [@Daedelus76](#): > > This is why we need very dry, boring committees of politicians, businessmen, and economists to decide things, and not so much unregulated free markets. You know, C-Span fodder. And who is going to select these “very dry, boring committees”? Surely not “millions of consumers and investors who are going with their guts”? > [@Daedelus76](#): > > When people discuss things in a way open to criticism, they can be more rational than millions of consumers and investors who are all going with their guts, often times all thinking/doing the same things because of the way humans socialize and interact. Most people don’t want to stand out from the crowd, if everybody’s buying Enron stocks or McMansions in California or Florida, nobody wants to feel like the odd man out. And yet the sheeple who bought Enron or McMansions got punished rather severly. And those who invested instead, some years ago, in oil drillers – that is those who put capital where it was desperately needed and helped prevent the current energy crisis from being even worse than it is – were ridiculed at the time but ultimately hugely rewarded for their correct and super ethical choice. Will your “very dry, boring committees” have the _cajones_ to punish the stupid and greedy and reward the worthy? Or will they just fall victim to groupthink like Robert McNamara’s war planners and today’s Fed. I don’t think you should put the fools who got you into the problem in charge of getting you out, no matter how many Harvard degrees they’ve got. You are trying to describe a utopia, but I am afraid that what you have described will quickly turn into the collectivist hell of the old Soviet Union, Daedelus. ---
**Author:** ![Daedelus76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Daedelus76](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Daedelus76)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2008, 7:52am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/43 "2008-07-05T07:52:51Z")
> [@Warren](#): > > The metaphore of bubble is used to describe something that keeps getting bigger (inflating) and then collapses in on itself (bursts). If the oil prices bring down the US economy, other economies will follow- I think that’s the bubble aspect, the US economy cannot tolerate a rapid rise in fuel costs, we don’t have the flexibility to deal with that sort of shock. People who are buying into the oil market expecting oil to stay at 140+ a barrel are mistaken, eventually it will come down by some means. I do think alot of people are underestimating the pain of the kerosene/jet fuel/diesel situation. > [@](#): > > Mtnjim, you sound bitter. Maybe you have good reason to be, but I think your blame is misplaced. The only purpose of markets is for a buyer and seller to exchange goods at an agreed upon price. eBay’s a market, too,. That doesn’t mean people don’t game the market on eBay. They do it all the time. Why wouldn’t people do that in the real markets? > [@](#): > > Or perhaps the 49% are enslaved by the 51%. I believe it was Benjamin Franklin who said that democracy is two wolves and a lamb deciding what to have for lunch. Thank God we still have a Bill of Rights. That’s a common saying attributed to Franklin, but he never said it. For one thing “lunch” wasn’t in the idiom of the day. Our form of government is designed to balance the petty ambitions of individuals against the greater good and individual rights. I think the assumptions libertarians make about human nature are overly dark and pessimistic, and were not shared by all of our founding fathers. > [@](#): > > I’m not against ethics, but I don’t think ethics is going to help you choose between chocolate ice cream and cherry pie. Of course because the choice is ethically irrelevent. _De gustabis non disputandum_ > [@](#): > > Ethics might help you decide how to feed the hungry, but it is the ability to feel hunger that makes you know that food has value. I didn’t know that hunger was an emotion. I think what you are saying is that conscious awareness of hunger allows us to appreciate having food? I agree. However, just because somebody doesn’t feel something in themselves, doesn’t mean that others might not feel it as well. Plenty of tyrrants throughout history have apparrently lacked any feeling for their victims, that doesn’t mean the victims felt similarly about themselves. Indeed, plenty of ordinary people have dismissed the interests of others for the simple reason that they didn’t share the values or experiences of other people. Ethics clearly necessitates trying to understand the interests of others, and that goes beyond simple feeling into wanting to include a world of consequences beyond your own life. Perhaps there is a certain amount of empathy involved, but this empathy must be tempered with a reasoning mind, otherwise it just becomes favoratism. > [@](#): > > And who is going to select these “very dry, boring committees”? Surely not “millions of consumers and investors who are going with their guts”? They vote for representatives, right? We can’t all be experts in everything, sometimes we have to defer to people with more knowledge and expertise. ---
**Author:** ![Warren](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/97f17d/32.png) [@Warren](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Warren)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2008, 5:00pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/44 "2008-07-05T17:00:32Z")
For Mtnjin and others interested, Al Korelin and Steve Taylor discuss **shale oil** for about two minutes, starting three minutes and fifteen seconds into the program. The link is: [www.kereport.com/audio/0705-01.mp3](http://www.kereport.com/audio/0705-01.mp3) The main address to Al Korelin’s website is: [Investments Podcast- Economic Podcasts- Free Podcasts- CEO Interviews- Korelin Economics Report](http://www.kereport.com/) The brief synopsis is that, for now, environmentalists are blocking American shale oil development. ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2008, 6:40pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/45 "2008-07-05T18:40:01Z")
the bubble of central banking will eventually burst Here is a link to a piece written in 2003 by an analyst who predicted the housing boom and subsequent bust as well as the impact on commodity prices, the dollar and the global economy. He would place the blame on mistaken (and/or cynical) policies pursued by the leaders of the Federal Reserve, and would suggest its abolition as a first step to ameliorating these increasingly dangerous boom and bust cycles. It’s the same in every era. Speculators and shop-keepers are blamed for transmitting the bad news about debasement of the currency. Luckily for now policy response is likely to be less murderous than was seen in other ages and other cultures. But watching congressional hearings, one can identify a resonance with emotions that must have held sway before. [http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/gbdreport/download/GBD0306.pdf](http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/gbdreport/download/GBD0306.pdf) > [@Marc Faber in 2003](#): > > Lastly, I should like to point out that it is a complete economic > sophism to argue, as so many economists do, that expansionary > monetary policies stimulate employment and production and lead > to eternal prosperity. Bresciani-Turroni clearly showed above that, in > Germany, **the money printing press led to severe hardship among most > Germans, as real wages declined**… > > In fact, I would argue that **any increase of money supply in excess of real GDP growth rates will lead sooner or later to rising wealth inequity, as the less privileged classes of society are less astute than the wealthy at taking advantage of speculative profits, which can be gained during any inflationary period** — particularly when the symptom of inflation doesn’t show up in rising consumer prices but asset prices, such as stocks, bonds, collectibles, and real estate. And, as I have explained in the past, at some point wealth inequity brings about so-called underconsumption, whereby the majority of people who want to buy goods don’t have the money, while the rich minority already has everything. This wealth inequity-induced underconsumption leads to social unease, economic stagnation, stagflation, or recession. > > Still, I wish to emphasise that **if the inflationists, who are now, under the leadership of the Fed, in control of central banks around the world, have their way, a very dangerous economic policy course will be followe** d. This will result eventually in **sharply rising inflation rates and a much lower US exchange rate,** and will bring about a disastrous global recession, which could threaten the capitalistic system as we know it today. I’m not sure about the timing of the inflation liftoff (the kind that would be reflected in the CPI), but I am certain that, given the irresponsible current credit expansion, it will happen and will usher in the crisis I have just referred > to. > > The question, of course, is against what one should expect the US dollar to depreciate, since the Fed can almost force other central banks to ease monetary conditions in concert through a massive dollar monetisation. Such a policy would lower the dollar value so much against other currencies as to create serious economic problems in Europe and Japan (competitive devaluation). In this event, foreign central banks would be compelled to pursue similar monetary policies as the Fed, which would lead to an unprecedented reflation on a global scale. However, such concerted global reflation wouldn’t necessarily lead to global growth. > > **What it would do, is to depreciate all currencies against any hard asset whose supply couldn’t be increased at the same rate as Bernanke’s “money printing presses” would turn out additional banknotes and credit. In other words, prices of real estate, art, collectibles, coins, jewellery, stocks (but not bonds), and commodities, especially precious metals, would soar for some time** until a major financial reform in the world would lead to a stabilisation crisis that will not only pale the German stabilisation crisis of 1923, which produced temporary unemployment of around 30%, but also the Great Depression of the 1930s. (Only in this stabilisation crisis should we expect massive deflation.) T **he global reflation that I am talking about could last for several years and, given the way smart operators amassed large fortunes during the German hyperinflation, under this scenario there would be great, although very speculative, investment opportunities.** ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2008, 7:22pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/46 "2008-07-05T19:22:05Z")
> [@](#): > > Current prices and demand for oil today are based upon an overheated, inflation ridden economy. Eventually the federal government, the fed, and the central banks are going to have to take measures to control inflation. The overheating is occurring particularly in non-OECD economies. China, India, Vietnam, Russia, Saudi Arabia etc. These guys need to remove pegs to the dollar and tighten their own monetary policy. Inflation in these countries is running between ten and thirty per cent. Global real rates are very negative - less so in the US. The Fed ought to tighten too, but simply doesn’t the political mandate to do so given the fragility of the hyperleveraged financial system. So there may be an attempt at tightening over the next couple of years, but once we see its effect (in a sense the housing bubble is already a demonstration of just how much damage will be revealed by such a normalisation) the political realities will force the Fed to lag behind the rate of increase of inflation. Don’t expect very positive real rates in the US any time soon. > [@](#): > > The effects of stagflation that are starting to sink in are too severe for them to ignore. Quite… so we will no doubt see price controls, gas rationing, restrictions on financial markets, capital controls and more horrors that didn’t work last time they were tried and won’t this time either. Do you think policy makers have any understanding of or inclination to follow the policy measures that would help? > [@](#): > > Once the fed and the central banks take the appropriate measures to take money out of the economy, reduce inflation and re-strenghthen currencies, the attractiveness of oil and other commodities will decrease, and investors will start to dump these commodities; causing prices to fall until they reflect a fair market value (bubble burst). For the next five years at least, buy the dip in any broad commodity correction. We haven’t even addressed the protein inflation that we will see later this year and next, or the extreme tightness of food inventories that may lead to famine within the next ten years. Don’t expect ‘rich’ countries like the US to be immune from what’s unfortunately very likely to happen. I’m no doom and gloomer temperamentally (and in the long run Julian Simon will be right) - just that the next ten years or so are going to be very trying. > [@](#): > > the real demand/price for oil and other commmodities (which are vastly inflated in todays economy) downward. Look at a chart of commodities in real terms. (Here on page two [http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/gbdreport/download/GBD0603.pdf](http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/gbdreport/download/GBD0603.pdf) for example). They reached their cheapest levels in history betweeen 1998 and 2003. We all got used to commodities being cheap, but a very substantial rise from here (say up by 5x) would still put them within the broad historical range. The fundamentals - neglect of infrastructure amongst other things - make me (and some v smart investors such as Jim Rogers) think they will get there. So think $500 crude and $40 wheat. Goodbye industries that depend on people having much discretionary income. > [@](#): > > Keep in mind that the growth of developing countries are very strongly pegged to growth in the United States, as we’re the primary consumers of the goods and services they provide. ie Chinese and Indian economies were also suffering once the effects of the mortgage meltdown, which is localized to the United States, started to sink in. This is only somewhat true as domestic growth is picking up everywhere thanks to very easy monetary policy. It’s particularly a problem in the Arab world where booming liquidity and subsidized local consumption means that the biggest source of growth in demand for crude is domestic demand, leaving less room for exports. > [@](#): > > The article was referring to oil inventories that are tied up in the futures market. Warren is on the mark here. There is very little evidence of storage of the sweet light crude that is in such high demand. You need storage buildup for speculation to be driving spot prices. Unless it is speculation by oil producers who are choosing to leave the product in the ground. That might be a different matter. ---
**Author:** ![Daedelus76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Daedelus76](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Daedelus76)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 7:49am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/47 "2008-07-06T07:49:39Z")
The problem with that arguement is this; consumer prices are increasing, it’s not just limited to commodity markets. Everything is more expensive than it was a few years ago. The only things that really haven’t gone up much in price are electronics, maybe there are others, but food and fuel have gone up alot in price, and food and fuel are of course the basis of any economy because people need both in this modern age to survive. Too bad the government and Fed don’t really focus on that when they think about fiscal or monetary policies. I’m getting political, but I think the Bush tax cut diddn’t really help the economy much, it seemed to channel money into speculation. Imagine if the government had instead given tax credits to companies that were doing research, developement, or manufacturing with energy efficiency or alternative energy. Or if the government instead invested the money in renewable energy projects, infrastructure upgrades, you name it. I can’t say it would stop a global recession, but IMO it would be better than letting people play around with funny money playing musical chairs with housing and commodities, at the expense of the masses. ---
**Author:** ![PheroQuirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@PheroQuirk](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/PheroQuirk)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 12:40pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/48 "2008-07-06T12:40:14Z")
> [@Daedelus76](#): > > The problem with that arguement is this; consumer prices are increasing, it’s not just limited to commodity markets. Everything is more expensive than it was a few years ago. The only things that really haven’t gone up much in price are electronics, maybe there are others, but food and fuel have gone up alot in price, and food and fuel are of course the basis of any economy because people need both in this modern age to survive. Too bad the government and Fed don’t really focus on that when they think about fiscal or monetary policies. You’re right. The effects of the past three decades or so of of credit expansion will not be confined to commodity markets. But the rate of increase in commodity prices is likely to be a major driver of cost of living increases for some time to come. Some credible analysts believe that ten percent of global GDP needs to be allocated to alternative energy development over the next few years - that’s on top of investment in the US’s creaking national infrastructure as well as commodity-related structures globally. This will not happen without a squeeze on the consumer. So high energy prices today is the mechanism by which we achieve lower energy prices tomorrow than would otherwise by the case. Of course, it would have been better not to have allowed so much credit creation in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![greg2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ed655f/32.png) [@greg2](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/greg2)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 9:39pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/49 "2008-07-06T21:39:45Z")
> [@Daedelus76](#): > > If the oil prices bring down the US economy, other economies will follow- I think that’s the bubble aspect, the US economy cannot tolerate a rapid rise in fuel costs, we don’t have the flexibility to deal with that sort of shock. People who are buying into the oil market expecting oil to stay at 140+ a barrel are mistaken, eventually it will come down by some means. Don’t have the flexibility to withstand the shock of rapidly rising fuel costs? Did your local grocery store close last evening? Every market niche knows that speculation has created and will suffer from the run-up, which is unlike anything we’ve ever seen. We should be in a depression if the equity markets took the oil commodity price as a substantial trend. Every increase in per-barrel costs is just a blip on the screen. The end is coming, and everyone knows it. Let’s just hope that the Congress sits on their proverbial asses. > [@Daedelus76](#): > > I think the assumptions libertarians make about human nature are overly dark and pessimistic, and were not shared by all of our founding fathers. I don’t think its pessimism but realism. Its the very reason behind the Founders’ idea of separation of powers, which is being hazed lately. ---
**Author:** ![greg2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ed655f/32.png) [@greg2](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/greg2)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2008, 10:04pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/50 "2008-07-06T22:04:58Z")
Have to agree that the Fed’s signaling a credit expansion just at the point when oil markets were de-regulated is a major problem. But that’s capitalism, love it or leave it. The States could have taken the opportunity to beef up infrastructure, which is their domain. Don’t blame the Feds or Bush for broken bridges. When the cycle returns to equilibrium, if allowed to do so without Congressional meddling, the natural course of alternative energy development will continue as always, with the major producers leading the way, not gov’t. Energy business has a larger interest in alternative means, profit, which produces results. Gov’t has only its own interests, bird droppings made to order in an election year. ---
**Author:** ![Daedelus76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Daedelus76](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Daedelus76)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 1:11pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/51 "2008-07-11T13:11:18Z")
> [@Greg](#): > > I don’t think its pessimism but realism. Its the very reason behind the Founders’ idea of separation of powers, which is being hazed lately. In order to believe in the libertarian ideal of that dark human nature, you have to throw out the concept of progress. You have to believe that human beings will forever be slaves to nasty, brutish impulses, and that there is no objective good for anybody. Seperation of powers just keeps the petty ambitions of one individual from dominating the government. Actually, that should mean our system of government works, and it does… only inasmuch as the people of a country participate in the political process. And there is the problem. Now days large corporations and interests can buy mindshare. What passes as network news is a perfect example of this machine at work. I rarely watch the news now days, it’s mostly a combination of cheerleaders for global capitalism, and people wanting to gloat over train wrecks for their own agendas: fear mongering. The entire charade after 9/11 was unapologetic fear-mongering and that’s how democracies fail, resulting in Arabaphobia, jingoism, and simple-minded sloganeering as the most harmless aspects, and erosion of basic freedoms as the most severe. Fear is the tool of every tyrrany in history. ---
**Author:** ![Phoenix](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/phoenix/32/673_2.png) [@Phoenix](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Phoenix)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 3:35pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/52 "2008-07-11T15:35:55Z")
Someone told me that to combat increasing oil prices, the best thing would be to increase import charges to oil producing countries… so when they import goods from overseas they cost more for them… I don’t know if this is practical or not.. ---
**Author:** ![Mtnjim](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/mtnjim/32/2010_2.png) [@Mtnjim](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Mtnjim)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2008, 10:11pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/53 "2008-07-11T22:11:57Z")
Not only is the price of oil going up, and the value of the dollar US falling, but the [value of human life](http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080711/news_lz1n11read.html) is falling. ---
**Author:** ![Daedelus76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Daedelus76](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Daedelus76)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2008, 3:16am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/54 "2008-07-12T03:16:33Z")
> [@Mtnjim](#): > > Not only is the price of oil going up, and the value of the dollar US falling, but the [value of human life](http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080711/news_lz1n11read.html) is falling. Thanks for the link, Jim. I had no idea that a government agency put a value on a human life. IMO, there’s something really creepy about the idea of putting a value on a life, even for accounting purposes. I suppose on some level it makes sense, but it also seems very cynical at the same time. ---
**Author:** ![Phoenix](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/phoenix/32/673_2.png) [@Phoenix](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Phoenix)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2008, 5:32am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/55 "2008-07-12T05:32:59Z")
> [@Phoenix](#): > > Someone told me that to combat increasing oil prices, the best thing would be to increase import charges to oil producing countries… so when they import goods from overseas they cost more for them… > I don’t know if this is practical or not.. I remembered.. this was first suggested by French PM Sarcozy… ---
**Author:** ![ladygrey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/258eb7/32.png) [@ladygrey](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/ladygrey)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 3:51am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/56 "2008-07-13T03:51:03Z")
I dont believe America can afford to give up oil yet.. after crude oil is refines the by products are gasoline, diesel, petroleum and more Importantly Petroleum is used to make stuff like; propane (alot of homes run on this stuff still), ink, crayons, bubble gum, dishwashing liquids, deodorant, eyeglasses, records, tires, ammonia, and spandex! (the end of stretchy pants and bras as we know it oh no!) I head Hydrogen powered cars are the same as owning your own bomb, they found a way to make a better engine one that wont explode but its super expensive to make. Read that in a washington post years ago. Just my 2 cents. ---
**Author:** ![K24](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/k24/32/1513_2.png) [@K24](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/K24)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 4:03am UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/57 "2008-07-13T04:03:56Z")
that’s right, oil is a natural resource and it is limited, without oil we are as good as dead and will regress back to the stone age. no oil = no transport, no electricity, forget about solar energy. can you imagine a world without electricity? ---
**Author:** ![Daedelus76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Daedelus76](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/Daedelus76)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2008, 2:37pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/58 "2008-07-13T14:37:58Z")
Hundreds of years from now, people won’t believe we took oil out of the ground to burn it just to drive 4000 lb. vehicles to work, or shopping malls. They will regard petroleum fuels mostly the way we regard killing whales for spermaceti oil today, very wasteful. That’s my prediction. When you consider everything that oil is used for, diesel and gasoline is about the most wasteful usage. It’s used to synthesize all kinds of synthetic chemicals and plastics, of course… all at a very low energy cost. ---
**Author:** ![SteveO](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/87869e/32.png) [@SteveO](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/SteveO)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2008, 4:44pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/59 "2008-07-14T16:44:02Z")
Very interesting stuff here: [The Searl Effect: Large-Scale Antigravity video - Vidslib.com video search](http://vidslib.com/index.php?view=1079252) [The John Searl Story DVD :: The Life of John Roy Robert Searl](http://www.johnsearlstory.com) [YouTube - Searl Effect Generator](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAxTq0dwxww) ß 3D Animation of Device [YouTube - The John Searl Story DVD Trailer No.2](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjHnwPi6m3U) ß Saucer Commentary [YouTube - The John Searl Story DVD Trailer No.1](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZUFS16Z6u8) ß Searl Motivation [YouTube - Searl and Newton Part 1](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-O7WNvKSvY) ß Video of demo device in action (Searl and Newton 1) [YouTube - Searl and Newton Part 2](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46gRnzI2os0) ß Video of demo device in action (Searl and Newton 2) (The device shown here DOES run from external power. However it is attaining these speeds from a mere 7 volts at 600 Milliamps.) [YouTube - Searl testimonial 12.6.2007](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CvjBQkYE8U) ß More video of demo device in action. [Searl Effect Generator - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Searl_Effect_Generator) ---
**Author:** ![queenie-t](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/pheromonetalk.com/queenie-t/32/1580_2.png) [@queenie-t](https://pheromonetalk.com/u/queenie-t)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2008, 6:00pm UTC](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001/60 "2008-07-15T18:00:59Z")
ok my post just deleted let me preface this post by saying: I am a woo-a-holic:o 🙄 1. oil - look up lindsey williams 2. federal reserve and debasement of the dollar - look up ron paul for basics (he has some good youtubes talking about the illegality of the fed) 3. destruction of the middle class. and dare i say.. NWO has been in the works for decades.. look at the titanic sinking and fed reserve connection and the creature form jekyl island. 4. perhaps Argentina was a dry run for collapse of dollar and US. 5. nuclear power is not a God sent. low level constant radiation as well as what to do with waste is not a small issue. but look for nuclear push. 6. Problem (which they create), reaction, solution (what they want) is how things are generally run. 7. look up abiotic theory of hydrocarbons.. why did Russia just find so much? why does titan (a moon of Saturn) have such huge reserves if it requires dinosaurs? 8. not to say that global warming isnt happening. just maybe not happening because of what we are led to believe. and finally for good woo followup i suggest (depending on how deep you want to go.. as it is an onion and full of disinfo all along the way) godlikeproductions (have good firewall in place.. and dont say the word tavistock) whatreallyhappened alex jones realityzone projectcamelot Peace 😃 GOod lil youtube here.. not full of woo.. [![](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/uploads/pheromonetalk/original/2X/b/b62a9f6c3a88cddbc2e4faa4cc83cfd22fbfbce6.jpeg "Oil at $150 Next Week?") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkzETN8qfzw) oh and tesla is a good start for free energy.. and you could look into the DEW studies for WTC [Previous page](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001.md?page=2) [Next page](https://pheromonetalk.com/t/oil-prices-the-next-economic-bubble-waiting-to-burst/13001.md?page=4)