let me preface this post by saying: I am a woo-a-holic:o
oil - look up lindsey williams
federal reserve and debasement of the dollar - look up ron paul for basics (he has some good youtubes talking about the illegality of the fed)
destruction of the middle class. and dare i say.. NWO has been in the works for decades.. look at the titanic sinking and fed reserve connection and the creature form jekyl island.
perhaps Argentina was a dry run for collapse of dollar and US.
nuclear power is not a God sent. low level constant radiation as well as what to do with waste is not a small issue. but look for nuclear push.
Problem (which they create), reaction, solution (what they want) is how things are generally run.
look up abiotic theory of hydrocarbons.. why did Russia just find so much? why does titan (a moon of Saturn) have such huge reserves if it requires dinosaurs?
not to say that global warming isnt happening. just maybe not happening because of what we are led to believe.
and finally for good woo followup i suggest (depending on how deep you want to go.. as it is an onion and full of disinfo all along the way)
godlikeproductions (have good firewall in place.. and dont say the word tavistock)
whatreallyhappened
alex jones
realityzone
projectcamelot
So oil is sitting at 109 a barrel (down from 147), and while this isn’t considered a bursting of any economic bubble, it shows that there were some serious misconceptions about the price demand relationship when it comes to oil. The market has shown that its folly to believe that consumers demand for oil will remain constant amid rising prices, and that its folly to believe that oil prices will rise indefinitely against the normal laws of market equilibrium. Contrarily, high oil prices are, in fact, changing consumer behavior and decreasing demand as should be expected. People are trading in gas guzzling SUV’s for fuel efficient cars, and people are flat-out driving less than they used to.
The rising oil prices also seemed to ignore the effect that high fuel prices will have on economic growth in the global economy, and the demand for oil in developing countries (which are often made the culprit of supply shortages). Consumer spending in the global market (particularly in the US) is down, lowering the growth projections in many developing countries whose growth is highly dependent on exporting consumer products. The US is still the largest importer of Chinese goods, and as the US economy faces its own challenges with a housing market meltdown, credit crunch, bank failures, a troubled financial market, AND inflation spikes (whew), we should expect (and are seeing) a reduction in the demand for Chinese goods, an Asian economy thats starting to stall, and yes, less overall demand for oil.
Will we see 200 dollar oil one day? Probably. But was oil overvalued at $147. yep. Is it still overvalued now? The dollar is still severely weakened by economic policy designed to bail out the US economy at the expense of the US currency. Restrengthen the dollar, and there’s room for oil prices to come down much further.
The dollar rallies in a recession. Look at the current account - US manufacturing is experiencing a renaissance. Of course things are going to cool down as rest of world slows (decoupling was a hopeful way to descibe what actually turned out to be lags).
Having experienced a climax in inflation worries after five years of reflation, the new emerging idea will be a deflation panic. It’s after that that things get messy. with a chance either of massive defaults globally or galloping inflation. But we have to see the policy response to deflation first.
Really I think experimenting with pheromones in group surroundings (of which tacitus is the master) gives you a real insight into the workings of mass psychology and the way in which perceptions can be influenced by energies and cycles of different kinds.
I find it useful to think of oil energy as the “food” in a seed. Limited in supply. Intended to help us develop to the point where we don’t need the seed-food any longer. We transform from oil-based to something-else-based, or else.
And in some respects, I suspect, the reason that this seems like a conspiracy is that there is an inevitability to the process: either we get it right, or we die. Everything that everyone does seems to steer us down the same path. (Because there ~is~ no other option, not because people are colluding to take us there.)
Unfortunately, as a culture, it seems we have attention-deficit-disorder when it comes to addressing potential future catastrophic events. Our political environment supports sticking our collective heads in the sand … or at least, focusing on business-as-usual, and financial speculators are the “reality checks” that force us to take stock of our accounts, so to speak.
Oil will become worthless, other than as a curiosity, just like buggy-whips are now. Either because we figure out how to fly before we reach the edge of that rapidly approaching cliff, or because we don’t, and the issue becomes moot.
The worrisome thing: we (big “we”, as in “include the population of the planet=we”) apparently only get one chance to get it right.
We transform from oil-based to something-else-based, or else. The only questions are “when?” … and “is when soon enough?”
I wouldn’t consider the recent oil price spikes a conspiracy…more like a divergence between the economic science of how oil should be priced, and how oil is priced in the commodities market in real practice, factoring in the very human side to pricing oil (or any commodity) as an investment opportunity. I think thats where the difference between ‘economics’ and ‘finance and investing’ lies..economics is the science of the pure relationship between prices, supply. and demand. Whereas finance and investing concerns itself with recognizing opportunity for monetary gain in a real world market that is often influenced by human psychological reaction.
Its in the divergence between a financial instrument’s true economic price (fair market value, dictated by real supply and demand), and the price determined by the market that investors seek gains (and in extreme situations, the formation of economic bubbles)…and its in the convergence of the two that we see market corrections.
Heya, Phoenix – you and me, we’ll have a few pints and find the answer to this particular question, then be on our way to getting richer than Bill Gates.
You know .. so rich that no one knows how rich you really are.
I wouldn’t consider the recent oil price spikes a conspiracy…more like a divergence between the economic science of how oil should be priced, and how oil is priced in the commodities market in real practice, factoring in the very human side to pricing oil (or any commodity) as an investment opportunity. I think thats where the difference between ‘economics’ and ‘finance and investing’ lies..economics is the science of the pure relationship between prices, supply. and demand. Whereas finance and investing concerns itself with recognizing opportunity for monetary gain in a real world market that is often influenced by human psychological reaction. Often times there is opportunity for investors to profit, even when prices are moving against economic common sense.
Its in the divergence between a financial instrument’s true economic price (fair market value, dictated by real supply and demand), and the price determined by the market that investors seek gains (and in extreme situations, the formation of economic bubbles)…and its in the convergence of the two that we see market corrections.
Sigma, I think the best thing about your post is its timing. This is a time of the year when oil prices typically move down. If nothing else it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. This year we have the post-Olympic thing, which again may be as much self-fulfilling prophecy as reality. Building up to the Olympics the Chinese were presumably using more energy for construction and other preparations. During the Olympics they shut down industry and transportation over large parts of the country to control pollution. A very significant part of lower oil prices is the dollar which has been stronger over the past few weeks. In other currencies the price of oil has not declined so much. This past Wednesday the lead story in the Financial Times concerned the price of oil reaching a five month low. The second section of the paper began with the headlines “Ospraie fund to be shut down”. This was a major commodities fund. Their forced liquidition of long positions in oil has no doubt pushed energy prices even lower. All of these are transitory events, not the beginnings of long term trends.
I think you overestimate the power of the American consumer. In my July 5 post I stated, “Eventually TPTB will find a way to force prices lower, temporarily, but only temporarily.” They have been more successful than I would have guessed, but remember that under Clinton oil was selling at $10 a barrel. The Economist (same publisher as the Financial Times, incidently) ran a cover story predicting $2 oil! By now OPEC should be paying us to take the goo off their hands! Instead oil ran to $147. In spite of an unusually sharp correction, oil remains in a bull market. No doubt TPTB would prefer to keep oil prices low and the dollar strong through the election. Given their recent success I would be reluctant to bet against them. Secretary Paulsen has promised to stay until the election – but not to the end of his term in January! Perhaps he is taking a page from Greenspan’s playbook: get out while the getting is good. I fear what may happen between November 4 and January 20.
The fundamentals for oil prices remain positive (and for the dollar negative). More than 95% of oil and gas production from the Gulf of Mexico was shut down in preparation for the hurricanes. It will take months for that to come back on line – longer if the hurricanes actually hit. The BTC pipeline carrying Caspian oil to the West was shut down during the Russian invasion of Georgia. These disruptions have yet to be felt. OPEC is threatening to reduce production, if oil prices continue to decrease. I suspect we are near the lows for this move. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow from China and India. Even if economic growth in these countries declines it will most likely stay positive. There is no likelyhood of a major increases of cude oil production. It reached a peak in May of 2005. It is beginning to look like peak oil is behind us. Oil invetories have increased in the month of May for eighteen straight years. That is after the heating oil demand of winter and before the transportation demands of summer. This year (2008) – for the first time in eighteen years – inventories actually declined. There is no surplus. There never was a bubble! There simply isn’t enough oil. Oil prices will be back near their highs by the end of the year.
Daedelus, sometimes you say the most bizarre things. Libertarians believe in liberty, in freedom, in allowing people to live their own lives free of government interferrence. That’s not because they want the world to be overrun by evil. That’s because they believe people are basically good and don’t need the government to tell them how to live their lives. It is you who says, “we need very dry, boring committees of politicians, businessmen, and economists to decide things.” You are the one who’s afraid of the peoples’ “nasty brutish impulses” which have to be controlled by “very dry boring committees”. Libertarians are the exact opposite.
When Bernanke told us he could prevent deflation by throwing dollars out of helicopters if necessary, I think he gave us a pretty good clue as to which way this would go. With this weekend’s announcement that the government is going to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, I believe the die is cast. It looks like massive bailouts and galloping inflation.
Queenie, I’m with you except for a couple of things… The NWO sank the Titanic? How and why’d they do that? And how would anyone know whether there’s oil on Saturn?
Some form of hydrogen fuel (Matt Simmons suggests ammonia) probably separated from seawater using nuclear power. Unless we are given access to something more esoteric as SteveO suggests.
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Corrections, in language of market technicians, generally refer to downward moves. Presumably this convergence could result in an upward move of an underpriced asset. So all market moves are either convergences or divergences of true economic price and the price investors are willing to pay. So how do we determine which move is a convergence and which is a divergence? If we allow this question to be answered by those who are willing to “put their money where their mouth is” we have a free market. If we allow it to be determined by government fiat, we have a dictatorship, communist or fascist. If we allow it to be determined by Goldman Sachs, we have market manipulation. (Oil Prices: The Next Economic Bubble Waiting to Burst? - #59 by SteveO)
some charts from Marc Faber. he points out big stimulant of demand for industrial commodities was new investments in construction, infrastructure and to expand manuf capacity ie not just higher consumption. so slowing demand and slower capital spending growth makes industrial commodities very vulnerable.
With all the troubles we’re seeing in the financial sector, even a shut-down in oil production here in Houston can’t keep oil prices up.
Consumer confidence is shot and we have a long couple of months ahead of us. Hurricane season is just about over, and summer travel is coming to a close (if it ever really took off this year). Demand for oil is waning amidst falling supply, and lower production.
The long-run trend for oil may be bullish, but it’ll be a long while before we see 140 dollar oil again.
As far as Hurricane Ike and the Houston area is concerned…the damage here was significant, but not nearly as bad as many were expecting. Flooding was minimal, as the Houston area is much better equipped to handle hurricanes than New Orleans, and much of the metropolitan area, as well as many of the large oil facilities (with exception to the off-shore rigs) are located many miles away from the gulf. The immediate coastal regions took very heavy damage, but fortunately most people had the sense to evacuate those regions. The biggest challenge we have now is getting our power grid and water lines up and running.
As for me, I’m on the outskirts of the southwest end of houston, and while we did feel the effects of the eye-wall, we were about 100 miles away from any storm surges. The sheer size of the storm brought hurricane force winds all around the houston area, which caused most of the damage around the city.
POP? Our economies screwed, people are sacrificing $4.00 cups of coffee at Starbucks because they can’t afford it anymore, gasoline prices remain artificially high, prices at the grocery store have spiraled, financial institutions are crumbling and businesses are failing left and right.
The IRS stimulus checks that went out earlier this year did nothing to stimulate the economy. But did anybody with half a brain really think they would? Yeah that’s the ticket, print out more fake money and give it to the people to spend!
And, the government just printed another fake 85 billion dollars and gave it to AIG. Folks that’s over $300.00 for every man woman and child in America! Oh yeah, they did so for a stake in ownership. So if and when AIG does pull out, and the government starts benefiting from the bailout, how does that help you and I as tax payers? It doesn’t! The government will probably just give more money to some middle eastern country that hates the U.S. and everything we stand for.
And Bush finally admits that the financial outlook is grim!
No shit!
Can a new administration get us back on the right track? Looking at the choices we have, I’m not terribly hopeful.
Well, they say history repeats itself, and every nation that rose to superpower status then fell from power lasted for around 200 years. Is it our time to fall? Will nuclear weapons insure that the U.S. doesn’t repeat the cycle, or will it end up being the nail in our coffin?
Heh, Nice observation Mark with the 200 year thing… although I thought the Holy Roman Empire lasted a little while longer.
Nonetheless - I think (hope) that the world is heading to a place where individual countries are becoming increasingly irrelevant. “Nations” are really nothing more than a way for people to call themselves different then someone else (and if they are different… then they can be hated)
rolleyes: