The extreme strangeness of climate change

Boy… this is BIZARRE ! from the Daily Kos… anybody have a youtube vid of this process ? Ummmmm… this is… not so good, eh ?

Sun Sep 16, 2007 at 06:12:27 AM PDT

Systems feed back on themselves. The disappearance of summer ice cover in the Arctic has received a fair amount of publicity, and it’s easy to see how replacing light-reflecting snow with dark, heat-absorbing water can accelerate warming trends.
Another feedback mechanism is less well understood. Much of the ground in Alaska and the Canadian North is permafrost, which has a good deal of carbon locked up in its frozen depths, both as CO2 and in the form of an even more effective heat-trapping gas, methane.
As the climate warms in the North, melting permafrost releases both gasses. For a dramatic instance of this, courtesy Science Daily, follow below the fold.

The release of carbon dioxide associated with melting permafrost has, so far, been largely offset by increases in vegetation – warmer weather=more plant growth. Plants don’t breath in methane, however, and one must wait for it to break down into a form of carbon that the biosystem can absorb. In the meantime, whether the gas comes from cattle or sewage treatment plants or melting permafrost, it’s in the atmosphere, trapping heat, and contributing to rises in atmospheric temperatures.
That’s the background. I should also add that drilling for oil and gas, common across the North, releases additional carbon in both forms, regardless of whether the drilling is exploratory or it goes into production.
Last month, [University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF)] researcher Katey Walter brought a National Public Radio crew to Alaska’s North Slope, hoping to show them examples of what happens when methane is released when permafrost thaws beneath lakes. When they reached their destination, Walter and the crew found even more than they bargained for: a lake violently boiling with escaping methane.
“It was cold, wet and windy. We… paddled out to a huge methane plume in the middle of the lake with no idea what to expect, how strong the bubbling plume would be, whether or not our raft would stay afloat, how dangerous it would be to breath the gas,” said Walter, an assistant professor in UAF’s Institute of Northern Engineering and International Arctic Research Center. “The violent streams of bubbles made the lake appear as if it were boiling, but the water was pretty cold."
The researchers were careful to note that this particular plume may be related to a methane hydrate deposit being released, rather than the gases coming directly from the permafrost itself.
That is to say that there are two sources of methane with which to be concerned. One would be methane that is locked into the permafrost itself. This comes originally from organic material – dead plants and animals – being digested by bacteria. As that mass is frozen, the methane is locked into it.
The other, methane hydrate, or methane ice, is more complex. Originally thought to exist only in the outer solar system, it was then discovered at depth in the ocean floor, and later found to exist in large deposits under the permafrost. It’s essentially methane locked in water ice. As it melts, and as overlying layers of permafrost that lock them into place disappear, these deposits can be released directly into the atmosphere, further warming it and contributing to even more such releases.
If you have a block of this methane ice, you can set a match to it and it will burn.
Some links you may find informative are here, here, and here. Of course, the energy sector see this is a wonderful resource.
The UAF team are continuing to investigate methane hotspots in the North, to get a better sense of their connection to the disappearance of the permafrost, and of the sheer volume of gas being emitted into the atmosphere.
Here’s the kicker. From Walter
“Should large quantities of methane be released from methane hydrates… in association with permafrost thaw, then we could have large sudden increases in atmospheric methane with potentially large affects on global temperatures.” [My emphasis]
Good. Great. Just peachy.
A large sudden increase. Something we can’t predict or plan or compensate for. It makes me wonder what’s happening to Russian permafrost, too.
I agree with Al Gore that it is important to stay positive in the work against global warming, focusing on what we can do, rather than the enormity of the task ahead. In that light I apologize for putting this out without a laundry list of “things you can do at home” to make it all better, but, inasmuch as DKos is a clearing house of sorts for information, I thought to put this out there.
Some days it’s easier to be optimistic about our prospects than it is on others. I wish I had Al’s strength. I also wish I had him for a president, but that’s another diary altogether.
UPDATE. Just an afterthought, but I think what this points to is the necessity of alleviating the crisis now, because we have to have room to accomodate wild cards like this. The unkown unknowns. If you’ll pardon my stating the obvious, climate is a complex system, and we cannot predict all the interactions between the atmosphere, the biosphere, and the geosphere. We need a buffer.
UPDATE II. Ok. It seems almost trivial, but this is my first time on the rec list! Wow. Please accept my well deseerved humility, and thanks.
UPDATE III. Please see this comment from billaurelMD about the atmospheric life of methane.
UPDATE IV.
Methane has a relatively short lifetime in the atmosphere [before converting to other forms of carbon!]. However, the concentration of methane actually affects its own atmospheric lifetime. The primary mechanism for its destruction is by reaction with hydroxyl radicals (OH-), the greater the concentration of methane the more the reductive power of the atmosphere (the supply of hydroxyl radicals) is reduced. If this feedback is included, then the true atmospheric lifetime of methane extends to about 12 years.
Methane has a global warming potential (GWP) of 23. This means that every kilogram of methane emitted to the atmosphere has the equivalent forcing effect on the Earth’s climate of 23kg of carbon dioxide over a 100 year period.

siberia is thawing too. I’ve been saying for years, we need to figure out a way to make lemonade with lemons in regards to the thawing permafrost, harness the methane, turn it into natural gas, and mitigate the damage on several levels. sadly noone with the capital to do this sort of thing ever hears me.

this just crossed my mind: methane is highly flammable and heavier than air. that means if enough methane is released over a large area it could potentially ignite like a giant oil well fire… imagine canada or siberia covered with sheets of gas fire…

kinda gives Northern Lights a whole new meaning huh?

The Discovery Channel has been running previews of a program in the “Megadisasters” series that will be on next Tuesday(?) about how a giant methane explosion caused extinction.:open_mouth:

The Cosmic Fart of Doom… some research points to the idea that these methane releases happen almost instataneously (in geologic time) and cause sudden, total climate changes that take a long time (i.e. 100,000 years or so) to reverse… one thing I read said that 400 Gigatons of methane are tapped in earth ice… stored there for a long time…

this may be interesting, and also scary as hell when you think about the things they found:

"Core samples and soundings taken off the east coast of Florida indicate that massive amounts of methane, stored as frozen hydrate in sediments on the ocean floor was freed at about the same time as a rapid warming of the global climate. The finding, published in the journal Science, supports a theory that the release of gas hydrates caused what is called the latest Paleocene thermal maximum. This was a period 55.5 million years ago when ocean temperatures soared by 7 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit within only about 1,000 years, a short period by geologic standards.
A warming trend on land opened migration routes for animals and led to a rapid evolution of more advanced species. The first primates, for instance, appeared during this period.
“This event allowed primitive mammals to both radiate and to evolve into more modern mammals”, said Miriam Katz of Rutgers University, the first author of the paper.
But Katz said that while land animals thrived, there was a massive die-off of 55 percent of some deep-sea species. This has been blamed on changes in water temperature and chemistry.
“Nobody has been able to explain this sudden climate change, until the methane theory was proposed”, she said.
Release of methane may have contributed to the rapid warming that ended the last ice age in less than 20 years about 13,000 years ago. Until recent studies of ice cores by scientists from the University of New Hampshire it was assumed that the melting of massive glaciers took place over a period of many hundreds of years.
**

What that may be telling us is that by combining carbon dioxide and methane we may alter the earth climate more ththan we dreamed possible in much less time than we could bring ourselves to imagine… methane boils at a low temperature, very low temperature, like -250 Farenheit, and is only stable because it is trapped in ice crystals… so if the ice begins to change, there could potentially be a gigantic “fart” that lasts a couple of years as it builds up momentum, the air heats up, more ice melts…

Do you think this stuff could be collected in massive quantities and converted into something safe safely? Or could be have controlled detonations? Or is it not that simple?
methane decompose - Google Search

some firmer science:

"The Future. The juiciest disaster-movie scenario would be a release of enough methane to significantly change the atmospheric concentration, on a time scale that is fast compared with the lifetime of methane. This would generate a spike in methane concentration. For a scale of how much would be a large methane release, the amount of methane that would be required to equal the radiative forcing of doubled CO2 would be about ten times the present methane concentration. That would be disaster movie. Or, the difference between the worst case IPCC scenario and the best conceivable ‘alternative scenario’ by 2050 is only about 1 W/m2 mean radiative energy imbalance. A radiative forcing on that order from methane would probably make it impossible to remain below a ‘dangerous’ level of 2 deg above pre-industrial. I calculate here that it would take about 6 ppm of methane to get 1 W/m2 over present-day. A methane concentration of 6 ppm would be a disaster in the real world.
http://www.realclimate.org/hydrates.1.jpg
The atmosphere currently contains about 3.5 Gton C as methane. An instantaneous release of 10 Gton C would kick us up past 6 ppm. This is probably an order of magnitude larger than any of the catastrophes that anyone has proposed. Landslides release maybe a gigaton and pockmark explosions considerably less. Permafrost hydrates are melting, but no one thinks they are going to explode all at once.
There is an event documented in sediments from 55 million years ago called the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum, during which (allegedly) several thousand Gton C of methane was released to the atmosphere and ocean, driving 5° C warming of the intermediate depth ocean. It is not easy to constrain how quickly things happen so long ago, but the best guess is that the methane was released over perhaps a thousand years, i.e. not catastrophically [Zachos et al., 2001; Schmidt and Shindell, 2003].
The other possibility for our future is an increase in the year-in, year-out chronic rate of methane emission to the atmosphere. The ongoing release of methane is what supplies, and determines the concentration of, the ongoing concentration of methane in the atmosphere. Double the source, and you’d double the concentration, more or less. (A little more, actually, because the methane lifetime increases.) The methane is oxidized to CO2, another greenhouse gas that accumulates for hundreds of thousands of years, same as fossil fuel CO2 does. Models of chronic methane release often show that the accumulating CO2 contributes as much to warming as does the transient methane concentration.

OOOPS Saw another “teaser” for the program last night, it’s The History Channel.:o